denisebak: Sarah Roemer : Betting Odds, Implied Probability And Beating The Closing Line

Monday, October 7, 2013

Sarah Roemer : Betting Odds, Implied Probability And Beating The Closing Line

Sarah Roemer : In order to profit long term from gambling, it is crucial to understand the underlying mathematical concept behind the odds offered by sportsbooksaving a random line at Pinnacle Sports for a mythical Yankees/Royals game we see New York offered at -220 and Kansas City at +206 and from those betting lines, we can calculate the implied probability each team has of winning that particular gameo calculate the implied probability of winning for a favorite (where the odds are negative), take the absolute value of the odds and divide that by the absolute value of the odds plus 100or the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:220 / (220 + 100) = 220 / 320 = 0875 = 685%To calculate the implied probability of winning for an underdog (where the odds are confident), divide 100 by the sum of the line plus 100or the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:100 / (206 + 100) = 100 / 306 = 0268 = 328%looking at the percentages, the sum of them is over 1 ... [Read More @ Sarah Roemer]

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